Japan is set to miss its long-standing goal of balancing its primary balance in the year from April 2025, according to the government’s own forecasts.

Japan’s primary balance, which excludes net interest payments on public debt, is projected to be around minus 0.4% in fiscal year 2025, according to the Cabinet Office’s mid-to-long term outlook report released Monday. The estimated deficit was unchanged from the last update in July.

The new figure will add to doubts about the government’s ability to bring its fiscal house in order. Setting a path toward greater fiscal discipline is seen of key importance for maintaining market confidence in the nation’s finances. Japan’s public debt load, at more than twice the size of the economy, is the largest among advanced economies.

The government said the goal would still be attainable under a high-growth scenario, assuming a continuation of efforts to cut spending. That optimistic scenario envisions Japan achieving robust growth rates comparable to those in the 1980s and 1990s.

For the fiscal year starting in April, the government foresees the primary balance at minus 3%, compared with a minus 0.8% forecast in the last report, reflecting the impact of increased spending from stimulus packages and other steps. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government has already approved a ¥13 trillion ($87.7 billion) extra budget to fund economic measures and plans to implement around ¥3 trillion in tax cuts later this year.

Also, Kishida has yet to make clear how the government will pay for increased defense and childcare spending, leaving further uncertainty over how the nation’s books will be balanced over the coming years. The estimate assumes the premier will at some point identify a sustainable funding source to cover the scheduled hike.

The government continues to see the country’s inflation rate hovering around 2% over the long run under the high-growth scenario, consistent with views expressed in the July report. Under the more realistic scenario, inflation is expected to cool to around 0.8%, gradually slowing from 3% in the current fiscal year.

The Bank of Japan also sees price pressures easing over the short term as the impact of rising oil prices and currency movements softens. The central bank is expected to cut its forecast for the key inflation gauge for the upcoming fiscal year to around 2.5% from 2.8% at its meeting concluding Tuesday.

Gov. Kazuo Ueda has said inflation will pick up again after the temporary lull, with a key focus being on the strength of annual wage deals culminating in March. BOJ officials consider their price projections sufficiently strong, around 2% or higher, and their focus is on whether they can be certain of sustained price gains, people familiar with the matter have said.