MARBURG, Germany – The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has revealed how instability can become a powerful political instrument.
Leaders can exploit crises to maintain supporters’ loyalty, even while imposing costs on them, and extract concessions from domestic and foreign adversaries through coercion and manufactured unpredictability. In a forthcoming paper, Canadian economist Ronald Wintrobe calls this dynamic “thugocracy”: a form of rule grounded in coercion, intimidation and unpredictability.
Over the past several months, the conflict has swung repeatedly — sometimes within hours — from escalation to de-escalation, with threats, strikes, sanctions, tolls and ceasefire announcements following one another at breakneck speed. On April 7, for example, only hours after warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly shifted course and announced a ceasefire, claiming that America’s military objectives had already been achieved.
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